After decades of observation, failure and success, I now have the confidence to comment on markets in a way which may be useful for some. First off, the focus will be upon a simple, yet all-important aspect of trading: when to sell.

JNUG, a high beta Gold ETF, will be the primary trading vehicle used. Charts, comments, and methodology, kept as simple as possible (KISS), may be interpolated for other purposes, e.g. shorting via JDST.

Of course, there are no guarantees or particular claims made. I have been wrong in the past, and will be again (always use stops). My main intent is to pass along some knowledge and to have a good time while doing so.

Is the Bottom really in?

We have been fooled before, and may be again. However, the best evidence indicates that the initial recovery lows of a year ago will certainly hold, and that the bottom for the Gold Bull’s first phase up is now in place. No guarantees though. Again, always use stops!

Happy trades to you,


Gold broke down about two years ago after a strong run up, while correcting, as the broken line at 114.50 indicates. The initial uptrend had its beginnings at the turn of the century (GLD began in 2004).

It has now completed its entire retracement, and the second secular phase up is forming.

The bottom a year ago at 100.53 (not the bogus 100.23) has been tested. Low FIBO at 107.08 turned out to be significant support, as the interesting number 107.00 held.

Grandaddy XAU just broke through initial downtrend resistance with gusto, but topped and gave it up for some quick profit taking. Its gap at 69.88 looked to need filling, but apparently not necessary, as newbie GDX did the deed:

Prognostication from a few weeks ago:

This is the beginning. I will initially concentrate on something everybody talks about but nobody does anything about: when to sell.